Photo: azlea
Watching mainstream media and reading travel warnings is not the best way to gauge the risk of living in a new place.
At least once a week, I respond to an email or forum message that goes something like this:
Hi! I’ve been reading your articles and following your blog, and since you’ve lived in Pakistan, I wanted to ask if you felt safe over there. My husband and I, along with our two kids, are planning to move to Lahore/Islamabad/Karachi and we want to know how dangerous it really is to live there.
The problem is, I can’t give a definitive answer whether Pakistan, or any place, will feel “safe” or “dangerous” for anyone else, as there are so many factors involved, like what neighborhood you live in, what contacts you have, if you understand the local language, how you travel, and what situations seem normal and safe to you.
When I first arrived in Morocco for a year of studying abroad, I felt uncomfortable walking in the streets because in Moroccan culture, staring generally isn’t seen as rude. After a few months, I got used to the staring and I no longer felt unsafe walking to town.
In Pakistan, it was the guns that threw me off at first. Everywhere I went, I saw uniformed, stone faced men holding large guns, and during the Danish cartoonist riots I saw Army Rangers and riot squads patrolling the streets. After a while, I realized that big guns are part of everyday life, and that even tiny shoe stores will hire armed guards to watch over their stores after dark. Seeing armed men no longer became a source of fear, but merely something normal.
Photo: author
For expats, planning to move to a new host country takes a considerable amount of effort and research. When trying to decide whether a specific country or city is a good fit for you or if it is simply too risky, there are a number of factors you can look at to calculate risk.
1. Violent Crime
Look at how much violent crime takes place and who seems to be most affected by it. Is it mostly people involved with the drug trade or other illegal activities who are victims, or is the general population affected as well? Check out homicide rates and find out the number of reported sexual assaults. Try to see if these crimes are specifically directed at foreigners.
2. Political Instability
Read up on the country’s history. Has it recently emerged from civil war or other armed conflict? How much of the country’s territory does the government really control? In some areas of the world, elections and changes in power can lead to rioting, looting and chaos. Would changes in the government put you and your family in a precarious situation? If you end up living in a capital city, you may be more affected by governmental issues in your everyday life.
3. Economic Disparity
As an expat, will you be on par economically with a large sector of the local population, or will you be part of a small group on a completely different socioeconomic plane than most locals? When my husband and I lived in Pakistan, we were firmly grounded in the upper middle class and lived among Pakistanis. We were able to shop in the same stores and go to the same markets.
Photo: Desmond Kavanagh
In some cities, expats live in guarded compounds, shop in completely different stores, and aren’t able to have too much interaction with the local population due to such a large income gap. Being seen as part of an economic elite could make you more vulnerable to theft, violent crime or terrorist attacks.
4. Kidnapping & Hostage Taking
There are some areas of the world where foreign hostages are worth quite a bit of money. Google the name of your proposed host country + “hostage” and see what you get. Read the top stories that come up and see if you can spot any trends. Is it mostly locals or foreigners who are kidnapped or taken hostage, and where do these abductions usually take place? If they are most common in a remote mountain area that you don’t plan on visiting or seem to be politically motivated, the situation shouldn’t be as risky for you.
5. Terrorist Attacks
While there is considerable debate over who should be deemed “terrorists” and what “terror attacks” really are, incidents like suicide bombings, the Mumbai shootings and airplane takeovers have a more symbolic purpose and tend to create an atmosphere of fear and instability. If these types of attacks happen in your host country, find out where they normally take place and if specific groups or institutions are targeted.
If the attacks seem completely random or are targeted at foreigners, you will be more at risk than if the attacks are targeted at government and military institutions that you aren’t likely to set foot in.
Photo: thelastminute
6. Natural Risks
We often think of other people as the greatest risk in a new environment, but we should take natural risks into account as well. Is the area prone to flooding or other natural disasters like hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes or tsunamis? If it is susceptible to a certain type of natural disaster, will you able to find housing that can withstand a catastrophic event?
As a foreigner, I didn’t feel that I was any less safe living in Lahore than a local. Most attacks there are targeted against the military, the police and government officers, and I avoided calling attention to myself while traveling, going out on strike days and eating at fancy five-star hotels.
The biggest threat to me was the 120-degree heat, but I also took precautions such as following the local news, speaking Urdu when out shopping rather than English, and wearing local clothing.
I can think of four specific times when I felt unsafe (aside from driving in the car) during my three years in Pakistan: when I felt my classroom shake from a bomb blast, when I had rocks thrown at me while driving through North West Frontier Province, when my car was stolen from my work place and showed up the next morning in front of my garage, and when I had to drive to the India border the day after Benazir Bhutto was assassinated. I was concerned people would be out rioting, but it turned out many took the national day of mourning to play cricket instead.
Community Connection
If you’re thinking about moving or traveling to a “dangerous” country, check out Matador’s guide on How to Travel to Dangerous Places. Have you ever lived in a place considered dangerous? Share your experiences in the comment section.
About the Author
More By This Author
Related Posts
13 Comments... join the discussion!
-
-
Great post and I sympathize with your position. Ever since the riots in Xinjiang, China, that is the #1 question that pops up in my email inbox. “So how safe do you think Xinjiang is now?”
It’s a good question, of course, but as you mention it is a difficult one to answer. I think it makes all the difference in the world whether you are planning to move to a foreign location or if you’re just traveling there for a couple weeks. The more time you have to adjust to things like people walking around with guns, the better prepared you can be.
I lived through one of the deadliest riots in modern Chinese history, and somehow not once were my wife and I afraid for our lives. After going through your checklist I’m sure that certain parts of the world (including much of Central Asia) wouldn’t check out as “safe”, but no matter where you go, there’s always a risk. For me the reward of living there was much greater.
↵ -
I was fascinated by this excellent post. I am an expat but living in northern Spain. Was interested in comparing motes. I figure that where ever you are planning to relocate you do your homework first – essential.
I have visited many so called ´dangerous´places around the world yet felt safer in them than I evr did in London where I was born & bred-
↵ -
Great photo, is that you holding what looks like a pump with the pistol grip?
↵ -
Yup that’s me! The man I’m with is actually a guard for a Christian pastor in the Punjab. I spoke a couple times to the church women, and it was very strange to be escorted everywhere by multiple armed guards. We rode around with the guns sticking out the windows of the van. I often questioned if this was “safer” than simply driving and walking around normally.
↵ -
Good points. Thailand is a pretty good example as well.
↵ -
Great article! I’ve been to Pakistan several times myself, and the most common question people ask me is about whether I think it’s dangerous there.
I talked about it in this blog post: http://bit.ly/cAc8GI–Meliha
↵ -
Great post! You break down each individual risk factor so well. I can picture a lot of prospective expats emailing this to their worried mothers before going to live abroad.
↵ -
Good article, very practical advice. A couple of thoughts from many years of expat living and three times evacuated or escaped from dangerous situations (Iraq, Rwanda, Albania).
One of the most dangerous things in most of the world is the roads! Will you drive there? Are you comfortable with roads without rules? Do you have any idea how to react if you suspect that you are about to become the victim of a carjacking? Prepare yourself, mentally and with some appropriate training.
In my experience, while the US embassy does its best to keep US citizens informed and to protect us and our interests overseas, in true crisis situations, like the three I mentioned above, the US embassy is very reluctant to order evacuations. This is very very costly for them, and if you are not part of the privileged few who have evacuation as part of their compensation package, it is very very very expensive for you (I heard $60,000 per person for the evacuation from Albania).
It is much less expensive to evacuate yourself and your family before the situation becomes a crisis.
Crisis situations develop in an atmosphere of misinformation and rumor. It is very difficult to know what is really happening, how serious the threat may be, and how long it will be before you are suddenly unable to extricate yourself from the situation by normal means.
The EU country embassies are usually quicker to decide to get their citizens out than the US, perhaps because the US community is sometimes among the largest, and therefore the most expensive to evacuate. Tune in to your French, Dutch, British, German friend networks when things get dicey.
After saying all that, I live in Nairobi now, sometimes considered the second most dangerous city in the world after Joberg, and I love it. Learn your way around, be smart, rely on local knowledge, and you can adapt to living almost anywhere!
↵ -
Thanks for the tips Greg! The questions you mentioned about driving are definitely important ones to ask. It took me about six months to adjust to driving in Pakistan.
It’s funny, Pakistan has been deemed “dangerous” by many sources, but in spite of the legitimate security risks I still enjoyed living there. You’re right, if we can feel comfortable in our surroundings and have local knowledge, it makes it much easier to adapt.
↵ -
Very good article. I worked in Juarez, Mexico for 7 years and got numerous calls from relatives asking if I was really safe as national news sensationalized the drug wars. My responses for years were that the news is not an accurate representation of the safety of Juarez residents. Drug cartels are targeting each other. I was used to the military presence, large guns, car searches, and war zone surrounding.
Then violence escalated. In the past year my opinion changed as extortion, kidapping, and murder victims changed from faceless people in the news to my co-workers, in-laws, and friends, including innocent children.
While I still think the violence is overstated on websites and in the news, I finally decided it was time to get out. I left Juarez a month ago and now am back working in the US.
The risk was finally outweighing the rewards of that international assignment.
↵ -
Thanks for sharing April. You bring up an important point: the security situation for expats can change at short notice and it’s essential to pay attention to what’s happening and how it affects your safety.
↵
